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Elections are now in progress for general elections in Holland, with recent surveys suggesting that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their win the most seats, although experts believe the party is unlikely of being part of the future coalition.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

Wilders' party, which in the last election pulled off a surprise first-place finish and formed a four-party right-leaning coalition that collapsed within a year, is currently slightly leading in the polls and is forecast to secure between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-seat house of representatives.

However, the far-right party's support has declined since the previous election, when it secured 37 seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out forming a government with the PVV leader, who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in the summer over a dispute concerning his controversial immigration plans.

Key Contenders and Projections

At the end of a campaign focused on topics such as immigration, medical expenses, and the nation's acute housing crisis, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, projected to gain between 22 and 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive D66, projected to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is expected to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – comprising the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with some facing heavy losses.

Voting Process and Political Division

In the proportional Dutch system, gaining just less than one percent of the national vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Among the two dozen political groups contesting the election – including parties for the over-50s, youth parties, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and for sport – up to 16 could enter parliament.

This high degree of fragmentation means that no single party is ever likely to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by coalitions – often including several groups in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the his party becomes the biggest group yet is shut out of power. However, opponents and experts argue that first place does not assure a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a majority is democratically valid.

While the election result is uncertain and government negotiations may require months, analysts suggest that after the most radical administration in its recent history, the future government is expected to be a broad-based alliance headed by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, began operations at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A typically reliable post-voting survey is expected shortly after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will explore possible coalitions that could secure enough support in the legislature. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must face a confidence vote in parliament before taking office.