Starmer's Allies Launch 'Stop Andy Burnham' Drive to Prevent Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Re-entry

Loyalists of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly started a coordinated effort to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a return to parliament. This action follows the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has triggered an upcoming byelection.

Major Barriers in the Selection Process

Multiple members on the Labour Party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly suggested it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection process. This is primarily due to the significant number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are anxious to avoid any potential leadership challenge.

The Labour party machine is said to have sprung into action following the revelation of the MP's intended resignation, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable expense and electoral danger of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Last year, he caused outrage in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had urged him to run for the Labour leadership.

It has long been believed that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to possibly stand for the Labour leadership should a contest to Sir Keir emerge. However, allies of the Mayor have warned against overstating the level of any scheming, suggesting he is deeply committed to his current role and would solely return national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.

Political Landscape and Poll Ratings

Amid opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole prominent Labour personality with favourable public approval ratings.

Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, several hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the byelection against competition from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any possible bid for the leadership.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

Senior Labour figures have indicated that a "Block Burnham" operation is already under way, with the party machinery being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself said that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to stop talking about potential contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

Figures on the committee have allegedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around £500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.

Several sources also expressed fears about Reform UK attempting to win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.

Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. There is also speculation the committee could impose an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

Yet, a supporter counselled against assuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.

The unions occupy a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now remaining quiet, sources indicated they would be opposed to anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The constituency in question holds a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is expected to launch a significant campaign, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from independent candidates.

Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the parliamentary party.

The resigning MP stated he was stepping down due to deteriorating health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He also remains subject to a standards inquiry related to his membership in an inappropriate online group.