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For a brief period, the former US president seemed to take a strong position regarding the Ukrainian conflict. After delivering threats of "serious repercussions" in August in case Russia's president carried on blocking ceasefire talks, he ultimately introduced substantial penalties on the Russian biggest petroleum corporations, these major energy companies. This action substantially impacted the Russian leader's ability to finance his aggression in the region.

But, with his latest comprehensive peace proposal for Ukraine, which was developed by US and Russian representatives without Ukraine's or EU involvement, he has seemingly returned to his favorable to Russia position.

Benefiting Invasion

Trump's proposal would essentially favor the Russian leader for occupying Ukraine while putting Ukraine's political freedom in danger. Despite strong statements that "Ukraine's independence will be confirmed", significant aspects of the initiative actually undermine that essential autonomy. Seen as a Kremlin dream would likely be a catastrophe for the nation.

Reflecting his business experience, Trump persists to view the Ukrainian conflict as a simple territorial dispute, implying giving Russia a part of Ukraine's soil will appease the president. But, Putin's invasion is not only about controlling a destroyed area of deindustrialized territory in the Donbas region. Instead, it's about Ukraine's democratic governance – and the Russian leader's obvious goal to eliminate it so it no longer serves as an appealing standard for the Russian citizens of the accountable governance that his growing dictatorship prevents them.

Land Concessions

While maintaining in status the already split oblasts of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, Trump's proposal would force Ukraine to abandon the whole Donetsk region. Beyond favoring Russia with territory that its military have been unsuccessful to capture in more than a ten years of fighting, this concession would render Ukrainian military defenses critically weakened.

This region is the site of Ukraine's much-vaunted "fortress belt", the well-established defensive positions that represent a essential impediment to invading forces. Trump would have Ukraine abandon these positions, providing Russian forces a open path to Kyiv in case he later decide to resume the war.

Defense Reductions

Additionally, in a action that would facilitate additional hostilities simpler for the Russian military, Trump would mandate the nation to cut the scale of its troops from their current 800,000 to 850,000 personnel to a limit of 600,000. Notably, Trump's plan imposes no such constraints on Russia's military.

In what appears as a gesture to Russia's campaign to portray the nation's democratically elected administration as Nazis, Trump's plan states: "Any extremist belief system and actions must be condemned and prohibited." Apparently to underscore this element, it requires that "Ukraine will hold elections in 100 days" of a peace deal. Meanwhile, Trump places no obligation that the Russian leader endanger his regime by conducting votes in his own country.

Protection Commitments

Certainly, the proposal makes the Russian Federation pledge not to "attack other states" and to "incorporate in regulation its position of non-aggression towards European nations and the Ukrainian people". However considering that the Russian leadership has breached similar agreements in the previous instances – for example the Budapest accord, in which the Russian government pledged to respect Ukraine's sovereignty in return for surrendering its historical nuclear weapons, and the Minsk accords, in which Moscow committed to a truce and a handback of occupied areas in eastern Ukraine to Ukrainian control – how should anyone trust Russia on this occasion?

For this reason the Ukrainian government has been so insistent on international security guarantees. While the proposal threatens a "strong coordinated defense action" in case Russia renew its invasion, and provides that "The nation will receive dependable protection assurances", the particulars range from vague to concerning. The proposal would not just prevent the nation alliance membership but also preclude member states from positioning troops on Ukrainian territory, effectively blocking the reassurance force, likely led by European powers, on which the Ukrainian government had been depending to stop Putin from restoring his reduced forces, restocking, and attacking again.

International Response

Another supplementary accord reportedly would grant the nation with a similar to NATO protection assurance, in which any later "serious, intentional, and ongoing military assault" by Russia on Ukraine "would be considered as an assault endangering the stability and safety of the Western nations." This implies a defense action. Yet different from a capable national defense – the nation's primary defense against future hostilities – the credibility of the side agreement would rely on the willingness of alliance members, such as Trump, to react with force to Putin's aggression, something they have {not